Climate change

During the period 2001-2005, the average temperature of the Earth was 0.76 degrees higher than the average temperature in the period 1850-1899. Over the past 50 years, the rise in temperature has taken place twice as rapidly as in the previous 50 years [IPCC 2007]. For a long time, there has been much debate as to whether this is the result of human actions, or whether this is an effect that would have taken place even without the interference of humans. After all, the temperature of the Earth is in a constant state of change. Factors that are particularly influential include volcanic eruptions, variations in solar activity and the position of the Earth in relation to the sun. Ice ages are succeeded by warm periods, such as the one in which we now find ourselves. What is unusual is the fact that the average temperature on the Earth is currently amongst the highest recorded in the past 450,000 years, and yet is still just a few degrees removed from the absolute temperature records as determined from the “Vostok ice cores” from Antarctica.

In early 2007, the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations published the scientific basis from its fourth assessment report on climate change (Climate Change 2007), which is intended to bring an end to this discussion on the possible influence of humans. The chance that the rise in temperature since 1950 is not caused by human interference is considered to be less than 10%. Thousands of scientists from 130 countries work on the IPCC reports and the conclusions are therefore widely supported in the scientific community.

In addition to the recorded rise in temperature, it has been determined that the concentrations of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere are also increasing sharply. The carbon dioxide concentration currently amounts to approximately 380 parts per million (ppm). This is a rise of 100 ppm in comparison to the carbon dioxide concentration prior to the industrial revolution. Ice-core samples can be used to discover the CO₂ concentrations from times long past, and in so far as we are currently aware, the concentration at present is the highest it has been in the past 650,000 years. Carbon dioxide is the most significant greenhouse gas, but concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide, the effect of which is certainly not negligible, have also risen dramatically in the past 100 years.

The rising temperature has a variety of consequences for the environments on Earth, for instance, precipitation and wind patterns. The ocean currents are changing, chiefly as a result of the receding ice cap at the North Pole, which also influences the (local) climate. Huge contrasts are expected at a regional level. The greatest temperature increases are predicted at higher degrees of latitude, which explains the receding of the ice in the Polar Regions. Those areas at lower degrees of latitude, which in principal already have an unreliable and low level of rainfall, are vulnerable to an increasing level of aridity. Furthermore, the high concentration of CO₂ leads to further acidification of the oceans, the ecological consequences of which are still less well known. A major consequence of all of this is that the biodiversity – the profusion of plant and animal species – will diminish further. But what fires people’s imaginations most is the rising of the sea level, as a consequence of the expansion of the ocean waters and the increase in the quantity of water as a result of the receding ice caps. In the most recent IPCC report, this is estimated to be at around 18-59 cm at the end of this century. Regarding the coast of the Netherlands, this will probably be approximately 85 cm. The economic consequences of this are considerable.

What the effects exactly will be like in the long term is still difficult to predict. For the time being, the IPCC is assuming a rise of between 1.8 and 4 degrees in temperature at the end of this century, however, an increase of 6.4 degrees cannot be ruled out. Apart from the huge complexity of the cause-effect relationships in the worldwide climate system, a great uncertainty is the quantity of greenhouse gases, and particularly CO₂, which humans will still release into the atmosphere. The worldwide energy demand is expected to double in the coming century, as a result of the growth of the world population and increasing prosperity, particularly in those economies that are developing, such as in India and China. In order to counteract this development, CO₂ emissions will at the same time have to be reduced drastically.

A global average temperature increase of greater than 2 to 3 degrees is generally considered to be highly threatening, as we would then be approaching what is supposed to have been the highest temperature in the past 450,000 years. This will undoubtedly have extreme consequences, and if the temperature exceeds the maximum temperature established in history, the uncertainty will grow as to whether the Earth will be able to effectively recover. In the case of a temperature increase of up to 2 degrees, it is assumed that humans will be reasonably able to adapt to the effects. Above this, the effects will potentially be unmanageable.

We must therefore try to limit the chance of large temperature increases by all possible means and, at the same time, prepare for unavoidable consequences, such as the rise in sea level that is already taking place. The Netherlands can afford better protection, but countries such as Bangladesh on the other hand could use some help.

Fortunately, developed economies are slowly but surely getting round to taking energy saving seriously, switching over to alternative fuels, such as biomass, and using increasingly affordable sustainable options, such as wind energy, on a large scale. An increase in the share of nuclear energy for the generation of electricity also seems forthcoming. This is not just about concern for the climate however; it also concerns the availability of energy in depleting reserves and providing for an increase in demand. Possibilities for capturing CO₂ from power stations and industrial complexes and storing it underground will receive a great deal of attention in the coming years.

As a first step, these are currently the most obvious routes, due to the availability of technology and the economic reality value. In the longer term, and in order to provide developing economies such as China and India with affordable alternatives to fossil energy generation in good time, great efforts will have to be made at the same time to develop additional options, so that they can become a significant economic factor in their own right. The more affluent countries can afford to use promising, but more expensive, sources on a larger scale and thereby create a production level with corresponding price reductions. The substantial use of innovative alternatives, which are currently still much too expensive or insufficiently developed, will only be conceivable in a few decades from now.

Major (scientific) efforts are still required in order to enable the long-term transition to alternative energy chains that make use of sustainable energy from, for example, sunlight or nuclear (fusion) power stations and in which alternative sources of energy are used, such as hydrogen in the built up environment or electricity in the transport sector. International task distribution and considerably larger research budgets are needed in order to achieve the necessary breakthroughs as quickly as possible. This will require many billions of euros every year, but we must not forget that the International Energy Agency estimates that total investment in the energy sector in the coming 25 years will amount to 15,000 billion euro (IEA, World Energy Outlook 2006). Accelerating the availability of sustainable alternatives could prevent large disinvestments in energy systems that make use of the increasingly expensive fossil fuels. Thus there are enormous opportunities here. For instance, the Photovoltaic Technology Research Advisory Council of the European Union indicates that the coming decade will be decisive in terms of who will be the future major players on the international market for photovoltaic solar energy.

We hope, by means of the concentration of scientific forces in NODE, to be able to contribute to the decision-making processes in the Netherlands that must lead to wise and strategic choices, not only so that we can fulfil the emission reduction objectives, but also so as to provide new perspectives for sustainable economic growth.

The range of information with regard to climate change on the Internet is overwhelming. A few of these sources stand out from the others. The website of the IPCC is the most important gateway to information on the opinions that exist in the international arena. The Dutch-language website of the KNMI [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute] provides highly accessible information on the backgrounds of climate change and the consequences for the Netherlands. A prominent source that reflects upon the economic consequences is currently the report by Nicholas Stern.